By MARK HANOK
Although there’s no mild weather in sight, at least temperatures will be close to normal during the upcoming week.
The arctic cold air will stay well to the north, with a west to east zonal flow, a mainly dry weather pattern will through early next week in our region.
It looks like temperatures will average about four to five degrees below normal for January, so this will turn out to be the coldest January in six years.
The only day when temperatures got higher than the 30’s at our weather station in Otego, was on the 23rd when the high was 40 degrees.
The low was below zero on seven days this month, including minus 13 degrees on the 16th Otsego Lake was completely frozen on January 10th, and that’s the earliest since 2004 when the lake was frozen on the same date.
Otsego Lake hasn’t frozen earlier than January 10th since the lake froze on December 29, 2000. During the winter of 2000-2001, there was ice on the lake for 113 days, until April 21st. In 2007 Otsego Lake didn’t freeze over until February 12th but was frozen until April 23rd.
On Friday a northwesterly flow of moderately cold air will take over, with variable cloudiness and some sunshine along with a few snow showers; highs from 25 to 30 degrees.
As high pressure builds southward from the Great Lakes on Saturday, skies will be mostly sunny with highs again in the mid to upper 20’s.
As the high moves to the mid-Atlantic states and a southwest flow develops, highs will be in the middle 30’s with partly sunny skies on Sunday.
A weak low pressure trough will move north of our area on Monday, and skies will be partly sunny with a few snow showers; highs from 35 to 40 degrees. Northwesterly winds will bring seasonably cold air on Tuesday with partly sunny skies and highs in the low 30’s.
On Sunday an arctic high pressure area dipped southward to Virginia, while another arctic covered the northern Great Plains and upper Midwest, with a high of 1 degree at Glasgow, Montana, 1 below zero at International Falls and 8 degrees at Minneapolis.
Bitterly cold and extremely dry air was in place during the morning in our area, and the low was 10 degrees below zero at our weather station in Otego. Skies were sunny all morning, then high cloudiness took over in the early afternoon; highs in the upper teens.
On the southern fringe of the arctic high centered over the Dakotas on Monday, milder air well ahead of a storm system in western Colorado, lifted up and over the very cold air at the surface.
This combination led to a major ice storm from the Texas Panhandle through Oklahoma, northern Arkansas, southern Missouri, western Kentucky, and southern Illinois. It was no coincidence that in Otsego County it was the first completely sunny day since New Year’s Day. With extremely dry air and light winds, the low was 10 below zero for the second day at our weather station in Otego, then a high of 20 degrees. Mark Hanok is an Otegobased meteorologist.
By MARK HANOK
- Weather Watch
- Weather watch The Susquehanna River level will be unusually low for the General Clinton Canoe Regatta during Memorial Day weekend.
- Weather Watch It’s really uncanny how the very dry weather pattern has continued in this area despite the succession of major storms that have moved to the west and south.
- Weather Watch Now that north has become a synonym for sunshine and south has become a synonym for rain, there’s no way that this extremely dry weather pattern can change at least for the next four weeks.
- Weather Watch March was the third straight month with below normal precipitation, and it looks like April will also turn out to be drier than normal.
- Weather Watch Temperatures were near normal in March, with precipitation around an inch below normal.
- Weather Watch On Friday a major storm will move to the Ohio Valley, while high pressure builds southward from eastern Canada. Skies will be partly sunny with highs from 55 to 60 degrees.
- Weather Watch When it’s warmer to the north and cooler to the south, it’s so easy to get into an extremely dry weather pattern in Otsego County. The weather forecast in last week’s weather column was more optimistic than other local weather forecasts, but the weather was actually much better than even we predicted.
- Weather Watch The jet stream will shift southward this week and a series of low pressure systems will move well to our south.
- Weather Watch Exactly as we predicted at the beginning of the month, it was one of the driest Februaries on record in Otsego County and throughout most of central and eastern New York. Thanks to the extreme upside-down temperature pattern with much warmer weather in Montana than in Georgia, and strong winds on Monday and Tuesday, an extremely dry weather pattern will be the theme for at least the next two to three weeks.
- Weather Watch Exactly as we’ve been predicting for the past month, this is turning out to be an exceptionally dry February - one of the driest on record in central and eastern New York.
- More Weather Watch Headlines