By MARK HANOK
It’s really uncanny how
the very dry weather pattern
has continued in this
area despite the succession
of major storms that
have moved to the west
and south.
When will meteorologists
who forecast the
weather in this area finally
learn that there really
is a correlation between
upside-down temperature
patterns, severe thunderstorms
and tornadoes in
Texas and the Deep South,
and dry weather in the
Cooperstown area and the
Western Catskills?
When the weather pattern
is very unusual and
there’s a major storm not
far to the west, the weather
is usually better than
predicted in our area.
Most meteorologists
consistently underestimate
the dry air associated
with deep upper-level
lows over the Great Lakes,
and the dry slot that
punches well to the east of
these major storm systems.
Although most residents
of this area may be
convinced that it’s been a
cool April, this is an excellent
example of how the
perception can be very different
from the actual
weather.
In fact, temperatures
in Otsego County have averaged
about a degree
above normal.
Even after the rain on
Monday night and Tuesday
evening, precipitation
is still less than half of
normal in Otsego County,
and there’s no significant
rain in sight through all
of next week.
It looks like April will
turn out to be the fourth
consecutive month with
below normal precipitation.
The next week will represent
a change in the
weather pattern, we’ll go
from very dry to extremely
dry, and temperatures
will average 10 to 20 degrees
above normal.
We’ll get a preview of
summer this weekend and
early next week, as a large
area of high pressure becomes
well-established
over the southeastern
states and we get a west
to southwest flow of very
warm air.
On Friday skies will be
mostly sunny with a
northwest breeze and
highs from 65 to 70 degrees,
and relative humidity
levels below 20%.
Saturday and Sunday
will feature bright sunshine
and highs in the low
80s, with desert-dry air.
As a weak cold front
brings only a few passing
clouds, a northwesterly
flow will take over on
Monday and Tuesday but
temperatures will continue
well above normal;
with partly to mostly sunny
skies.
Highs will be in the
mid-70s. .
Mark Hanok is an Otegobased
meteorologist.
